2011-12 Most Overpaid Defensemen

June 19, 2012 by Leave a Comment

This year’s list of most overpaid defensement based on the True Value they provided to their teams had two things in common. All had injuries during the season which kept them out of a significant number of games. Also, on top of not playing many games, they also did not perform at a level commiserate with their contract, so that even if their stats were extrapolated to a full season they would still have grossly underperformed relative to their cap hit. A third coincindence is that all three were named Michael.

Team GP Goals Assists Points TOI True Value ($M) Cap Hit ($M) Difference ($M)
1. Mike Green WSH 32 3 4 7 21.03 1.11 5.11 -3.99
2. Mike Komisarek TOR 45 1 4 5 16.65 1.10 4.50 -3.40
3. Michal Rozsival PHX 54 1 12 13 19.32 1.83 5.00 -3.17

Chris Pronger and Andrei Markov are not on this list since both players played less than 15 games in 2011-12, otherwise they would be nat or near the top of this list.

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2011-12 Most Valuable Forwards

June 18, 2012 by Leave a Comment

For the forwards the Top 3 most valuable players were not much of a surprise. They were hands down the top forwards in the league last year over the course of 82 games.

 

Team GP Goals Assists Points True Value ($M) Cap Hit ($M) Difference ($M)
1. Evgeni Malkin PIT 75 50 59 109 7.13 8.70 -1.57
2. Steven Stamkos TBL 82 60 37 97 6.58 7.50 -0.92
3. Claude Giroux PHI 77 28 65 93 6.27 3.75 2.52

The only question may be about Ilya Kovalchuck, but at 83 points we a tier below the top 3.

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2011-12 Most Valuable Defensemen

June 18, 2012 by Leave a Comment

Well, the top three most valuable defensement are not really that difficult to explain other than Shea Webber not appearing on the list.

Team GP Goals Assists Points TOI True Value ($M) Cap Hit ($M) Difference ($M)
1. Erik Karlsson OTT 81 19 59 78 25.32 6.24 1.30 4.94
2. Brian Campbell FLA 82 4 49 53 26.88 5.16 7.14 -1.98
3. Zdeno Chara BOS 79 12 40 52 25.00 4.85 6.92 -2.07

Once again it is important to keep in mind a couple of things, this analysis looks at who added the most value over 82 games, not the ‘best’ player.  Shea Webber was just marginally left out of the top 3, but it is likely if he played the 82 games instead of 79 he would be on this list.  Net-net, given the profilic offensive performance of Erik Karlsson, it would be a surprise if he didn’t win the Norris trophy this year.

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2011-12 Most Overpaid Goalies

June 17, 2012 by Leave a Comment

Before we start it is important to point out that the Puckonomics methodology sees the True Value of goalies consistently being significantly lower than the actual salaries of the top goalies in the league. Essentially this means there is significant inefficiency in the goalie salary market which results in high-end goalies being disproportionally over-compensated for the value they contribute.

Now that being said there are a couple of caveats to the list below.

Team GP Wins OTL True Value ($M) Cap Hit ($M) Amt Overpaid   ($M)
1. Niklas Backstrom MIN 46 19 7 2.53 6.00 3.47
2. Henrik Lundqvist NYR 62 39 5 4.15 6.88 2.72
3. Ryan Miller BUF 61 31 7 3.66 6.25 2.59

First off, Rick Dipietro would be at the top of this list if he played in more than eight games, but since he was injured for most of the season he did not qualify for this list. We will do a separate analysis of his true value compared to his cap hit shortly.

Niklas Backstrom is at the top of the list for a similar reason, if he hadn’t gotten hurt and played in 60 or more games he likely would not have been on this list.

Lundqvist and Miller made the list due mostly to the over-compensation of high-end goalies detailed above and just partially due to number of games played.

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2011-12 Most Valuable Goalies

June 17, 2012 by Leave a Comment

Before we detail the winners, it is very important to be clear about what the Puckonomics analysis calculates and what it does not. For goalies, we determine who provided the most value over the 82 regular season games. What the analysis does do not assess is who is the best goalie during the season. To be more specific, Brian Elliott and Jaroslav Halak might be two  of the best goalies in 2011-12 but because they shared the St Louis Blues net, neither played enough games to be one to have be one of the highest True Value goalies.

So here are the results:

Team GP Wins OTL True Value ($M) Cap Hit ($M) Difference ($M)
1. Pekka Rinne NSH 73 43 8 4.66 3.40 1.26
2. Marc-Andre Fleury PIT 67 42 4 4.36 5.00 -0.64
3. Jonathan Quick LAK 69 35 13 4.33 1.80 2.53

A couple of notes.

First, the obvious question is why isn’t Henrik Lundqvist on this list?  Well, he is one of the highest True Value goalies in the league, but not in the Top 3. Compare to Pekka Rinne he only play in 62 games and that 11 game differential means a lot. In particular it means the New York Rangers back-up, Martin Biron is worth a lot more than a regular back-up, which decreases the True Value of Lundqvist. This does not mean he wasn’t the best goalie in the league during 2011-12. He in fact may win the Vezina trophy and it will be well-deserved. The Rangers got phenomenal goaltending from Lundqvist when he played. By there were at least 20 games when they used another goalie, so that goalie created value for the Rangers too.

On a separate note, as detailed in previous posts, it is important to point out that the Puckonomics methodology sees the True Value of goalies as being significatnly lower than the actual salaries of the top goalies in the league. Essentially this means there is significant inefficiency in the goalie salary market which results in high-end goalies being disproportionally over-compensated for the value they contribute.

 

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2011-12 Top 3 Underpaid Forwards

June 16, 2012 by Leave a Comment

Here are the results of our True Value analysis of the Top 3 underpaid forwards during the 2011-12 campaign.  All three were making $1.25M or less and were worth at least $3M more than their cap hit. Pretty impressive numbers for all three of them.

 

Team Goals Assists Points Cap Hit ($M) True Value ($M) Amt Underpaid   ($M)
1. Jordan Eberle EDM 34 42 76 1.16 5.13 3.97
2. Jamie Benn DAL 26 37 63 0.82 4.34 3.52
3. PA Parenteau NYI 18 49 67 1.25 4.69 3.44

Eberle still has one more year left on his entry-level contract and Benn is an RFA this summer. The big winner from such a productive year is PA Parenteau who is a UFA on July 1st and should expect a big pay raise.

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2011-12 Top 3 Underpaid Defensemen

June 16, 2012 by Leave a Comment

Here is the list of most underpaid defensemen fromt he 2011-12 season.  There is no surprise that Erik Karlsson is at the top of the list given his Norris Trophy nomination.  What is consistant among all three of them is that they are still on their entry-level contracts and are playing at a very high level with less than three years of NHL experience.

Team Goals Assists Points TOI Cap Hit ($M) True Value ($M) Amt Underpaid   ($M)
1. Erik Karlsson OTT 19 59 78 25.32 1.30 6.24 4.94
2. P.K. Subban MTL 7 29 36 24.30 0.88 4.04 3.16
3. Ryan McDonagh NYR 7 25 32 24.73 0.85 3.90 3.05

Both Karlson and Subban and RFAs this summer, so both should expect big increases in their pay and will certainly not be on this list next year. Unfrotunately,  McDonagh still has one more year on his entry level contract, so his pay day won’t come until next year. The Montreal Canadiens don’t need another reminder that they gave up McDonagh in the Gomez deal, but this is yet another piece of data reinforcing how one-sided that trade was.

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2011-12 Top 3 Underpaid Goalies

June 16, 2012 by Leave a Comment

There aren’t that many surprises in the most underspaid goalies of 2011-12 based on how things went in the playoffs. What is a slight surprise is that Ondrej Pavelec is at the top of the list.   This mostly has to do with him having such a low cap hit of $1.1M.

Here are the numbers:

Team Wins OTL Cap Hit ($M) True Value ($M) Amt Underpaid   ($M)
1. Ondrej Pavelec WPG 29 9 1.15 3.81 2.66
2. Jonathan Quick LAK 35 13 1.8 4.33 2.53
3. Mike Smith PHX 38 10 2 4.31 2.31

Ondrej Pavelec is an RFA this summer, while Quick and Smith are in entering the final year of their deals before becoming UFAs. Both Quick and Smith should expect huge increases next summer.

As always, it is important to point out that the Puckonomics methodology sees the True Value of goalies as being significatnly lower than the actual salaries of the top goalies in the league. Essentially this means there is significant inefficiency in the goalie salary market which results in high-end goalies being disproportionally over-compensated for the value they contribute.

Note: Players with significant injuries are not included in this analysis. A separate analysis of the Rick Dipietro will shed light on the challenge of his situation.

 

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Shaone Morrisonn – Should be playing in the NHL

June 16, 2012 by Leave a Comment

Shaone Morrisonn was signed to a two-year contract with the Buffalo Sabres for the 2011-12 season after spending several years with the Washington Capitals.  Unfortunately, Morrisonn spent the 2011-12 season playing for the Buffalo Sabres AHL affiliate Rochester Americans.  At the end of training camp the Sabres put Morrisonn on waivers with the explanation that he was being sent down for salary cap reasons. The Sabres were right up against the salary cap and the team could use the space to bring in a lower cost stay-at-home defenseman.  However, when you look a little deeper at the Morrisonn’s True Value there seems to be a disconnect.

Shaone Morrisonn
GP G A Pts TOI Cap Hit ($M) True Value ($M)
2008 76 1 9 10 20.3 0.90 1.74
2009 72 3 10 13 18.0 1.98 1.95
2010 68 1 11 12 17.6 1.98 1.86
2011 62 1 4 5 16.2 2.08 1.33
2012 AHL 2.08

Shaone Morrisonn’s numbers are remarkably consistent (especially when adjusting for injuries). He is essentially about a $2M per year player, and that is without factoring in his playoff experience with the Capitals.  Given his predictable output and value, one wonders if there is more to the story than the salary cap excuse for sending Morrisonn to the minors. On July 1 Morrisonn is once again a UFA, hopefully another team will recognize his past contributions and give him another shot in the NHL as a reliable, tough, stay-at-home defenseman.

 

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Scott Gomez – No surprises, but what should he have been paid?

June 16, 2012 by Leave a Comment

It is no secret that Scott Gomez’s contract that was signed with the New York Rangers and is now being carried by the Montreal Canadiens is out of whack for his value. Since day one of the signing just about everyone mentions that he is not worth the $7M+ average annual salary of his contract.  Obviously he is an easy target to criticize as a result, but at what salary would the comments go away?

Scott Gomez
GP G A Pts Cap Hit ($M) True Value ($M)
2008 81 16 54 70 7.36 3.77
2009 77 16 42 58 7.36 3.57
2010 78 12 47 59 7.36 3.79
2011 80 7 31 38 7.36 2.82
2012 38 2 9 11 7.36 0.94

2011-12 was a tough year for Gomez given injuries and a lack of productive numbers, but there had been some consitency to his game in previous years. If Scott Gomez’s contract was in the $3M-$4M range it is likely he would not be such a lightning rod. Unfortunately his outsized contract may lead to him playing in Hamilton in 2012-13 (or less likely, having his contract being bought out).

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