2011-12 Top 3 Underpaid Goalies

June 16, 2012 by Leave a Comment

There aren’t that many surprises in the most underspaid goalies of 2011-12 based on how things went in the playoffs. What is a slight surprise is that Ondrej Pavelec is at the top of the list.   This mostly has to do with him having such a low cap hit of $1.1M.

Here are the numbers:

Team Wins OTL Cap Hit ($M) True Value ($M) Amt Underpaid   ($M)
1. Ondrej Pavelec WPG 29 9 1.15 3.81 2.66
2. Jonathan Quick LAK 35 13 1.8 4.33 2.53
3. Mike Smith PHX 38 10 2 4.31 2.31

Ondrej Pavelec is an RFA this summer, while Quick and Smith are in entering the final year of their deals before becoming UFAs. Both Quick and Smith should expect huge increases next summer.

As always, it is important to point out that the Puckonomics methodology sees the True Value of goalies as being significatnly lower than the actual salaries of the top goalies in the league. Essentially this means there is significant inefficiency in the goalie salary market which results in high-end goalies being disproportionally over-compensated for the value they contribute.

Note: Players with significant injuries are not included in this analysis. A separate analysis of the Rick Dipietro will shed light on the challenge of his situation.

 

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Shaone Morrisonn – Should be playing in the NHL

June 16, 2012 by Leave a Comment

Shaone Morrisonn was signed to a two-year contract with the Buffalo Sabres for the 2011-12 season after spending several years with the Washington Capitals.  Unfortunately, Morrisonn spent the 2011-12 season playing for the Buffalo Sabres AHL affiliate Rochester Americans.  At the end of training camp the Sabres put Morrisonn on waivers with the explanation that he was being sent down for salary cap reasons. The Sabres were right up against the salary cap and the team could use the space to bring in a lower cost stay-at-home defenseman.  However, when you look a little deeper at the Morrisonn’s True Value there seems to be a disconnect.

Shaone Morrisonn
GP G A Pts TOI Cap Hit ($M) True Value ($M)
2008 76 1 9 10 20.3 0.90 1.74
2009 72 3 10 13 18.0 1.98 1.95
2010 68 1 11 12 17.6 1.98 1.86
2011 62 1 4 5 16.2 2.08 1.33
2012 AHL 2.08

Shaone Morrisonn’s numbers are remarkably consistent (especially when adjusting for injuries). He is essentially about a $2M per year player, and that is without factoring in his playoff experience with the Capitals.  Given his predictable output and value, one wonders if there is more to the story than the salary cap excuse for sending Morrisonn to the minors. On July 1 Morrisonn is once again a UFA, hopefully another team will recognize his past contributions and give him another shot in the NHL as a reliable, tough, stay-at-home defenseman.

 

Filed under 2012-13, Defensemen, UFA Tagged with , ,

Scott Gomez – No surprises, but what should he have been paid?

June 16, 2012 by Leave a Comment

It is no secret that Scott Gomez’s contract that was signed with the New York Rangers and is now being carried by the Montreal Canadiens is out of whack for his value. Since day one of the signing just about everyone mentions that he is not worth the $7M+ average annual salary of his contract.  Obviously he is an easy target to criticize as a result, but at what salary would the comments go away?

Scott Gomez
GP G A Pts Cap Hit ($M) True Value ($M)
2008 81 16 54 70 7.36 3.77
2009 77 16 42 58 7.36 3.57
2010 78 12 47 59 7.36 3.79
2011 80 7 31 38 7.36 2.82
2012 38 2 9 11 7.36 0.94

2011-12 was a tough year for Gomez given injuries and a lack of productive numbers, but there had been some consitency to his game in previous years. If Scott Gomez’s contract was in the $3M-$4M range it is likely he would not be such a lightning rod. Unfortunately his outsized contract may lead to him playing in Hamilton in 2012-13 (or less likely, having his contract being bought out).

Filed under 2011-12, Forwards Tagged with ,

Logan Couture: The Sharks got a great deal

June 15, 2012 by Leave a Comment

Last summer Doug Wilson, GM of the San Jose Sharks, announced that he had re-signed Logan Couture for a 2 year deal which kicked in when his entry-level contract was completed at the end of the 2011-12 season.  Couture had just come off a great first full-year campaign with the Sharks and finished second for the Calder Trophy voting for rookie of the year.  It made sense that the Sharks wanted to lock him up for a longer period of time and address the contract before he reached RFA status.

What was very surprising to me at the time was the size of the contract.  Couture’s first year stats were impressive, ranking #66 in overall point with a +18 plus-minus. When you factor in his playoff performance in 2010-11 (14 points in 18 games) it was clear that even if he just maintained that level of performance he was a Tier 1 player in the NHL.  When I looked at the numbers of the two-year contract of $2.75M and $3M ($2.875 cap hit) it seemed rather low. Now that the 2011-12 year is done (which included an All-Star game appearance), it seems even more obvious that Doug Wilson and the Sharks are getting a smoking deal for the next two years (assuming he stays healthy and continues to perform at a similar level).

Logan Couture
GP G A Pts Cap Hit ($M) True Value ($M)
2010 25 5 4 9 0.30 0.59
2011 79 32 24 56 1.24 3.72
2012 80 31 34 65 1.24 4.57

Keep in mind these numbers are regular season only and do not include playoffs (see the Puckonomics methodology for an explanation) so adjusting for playoffs would likely make his True Value even higher than the amounts shown above.

While Couture would have only been an RFA at the end of the 2011-12 season and probably not been able to capture the full amount of his True Value like a UFA would, it is clear that he is worth significantly more than the $2.75M & $3M he will be earning the next two years.  I certainly hope that whoever is the GM of the Sharks at the end of this contract is ready to compensate Logan Couture not only for his future value on the ice, but also recognize that the organization underpaid him since day one on the team.

 

 

Filed under Forwards, RFA Tagged with , ,

Zach Paries – How much will he get?

June 15, 2012 by Leave a Comment

Zach Parise is probably this year’s biggest UFA name. Even though he has said he wants to stay in New Jersey, there will be many teams lining up to make him an offer.  Former GM Lou Nanne has said the Minnesota Wild will make him the highest offer.  What makes his comments interesting are how they must factor into Parise’s value.  Zach Parise’s on-ice performance is pretty consistant, with his true value worth about $5M during the regular seasons for three of the past four years (he had a significant injury in 2010-11 which kept him out most of the season):

Zach Parise
GP G A Pts Cap Hit ($M) True Value ($M)
2008 81 32 33 65 3.13 3.49
2009 82 45 49 94 3.13 5.33
2010 81 38 44 82 3.13 5.03
2011 13 3 3 6 3.13 0.46
2012 82 31 38 69 6.00 4.96

Then when you look at his performance during the playoffs, his leadership and captaincy and the supply/demand of this elite level UFA he will surely get at least $6M per year.  But in a market like Minnesota where his father J.P. Parise played for many years, Zach’s value is even greater as his presence could be directly tied to increased revenue for the Wild (TV viewers, ticket sales, ticket prices) as people come to games specifically to watch him play. If only 150 people become season ticket holders because of Zach Parise, that could easily allow the Wild to pay him an additional $1.5M (150 x 44 games x $200 (2 tickets/gm)).

We shall see how this all plays out, but it would not be surprising if Zach Parise gets up to $7.5M per years if he goes to a market where he will be the center-piece player (compared to NJ where he shares the spotlight with Martin Brodeur and Ilya Kovalchuck).

Filed under Forwards, UFA Tagged with , , ,

Brad Stuart – What’s he worth?

June 13, 2012 by Leave a Comment

Brad Stuart was traded from Detroit Red Wings to the San Jose Sharks this past weekend. Given the Sharks need for help on the penalty kill and a reliable, mobile defensemen it seems like he would be a good fit for a second tour with the Sharks. Since Brad Stuart makes his offseason home near San Jose and his family remains in the area during the season, it is nice to see that this could be a good match for both parties (I have seen his kids skating at Sharks Ice with their Stuart Red Wings jerseys on several occasions).

The Sharks have until July 1st to negotiate exclusively with Stuart. So the big question is how much is the 32 year old worth?

Looking at his performance the last five years shows the consitency of his game year in and year out. While he puts up a reasonable number of points he isn’t known for his offensive ability, but he does log over 20 minutes per game.

As you can see from the table below, Brad Stuart consistently rates at about a $3M value each year (when you adjust for injuries) but has been paid at $3.75 per year in this last contract with the Red Wings.

Brad Stuart
GP G A Pts TOI Cap Hit True Value
2008 72 6 17 23 21.2  $            3.50  $            2.31
2009 67 2 13 15 20.2  $            3.75  $             2.11
2010 82 4 16 20 23.2  $            3.75  $             3.00
2011 67 3 17 20 21.5  $            3.75  $             2.53
2012 81 6 15 21 21.1  $            3.75  $             3.00

In our analysis UFAs clearly receive contracts above their true value due to supply and demand issues and restrictions on entry level contracts.  Given Brad Stuart’s pending UFA status, his consistency year in and year out and tremendous experience of being in the Red Wings organization it would not be surprising if he once again signs for somewhere between $3.5M and $4M, with the amount varying on the term of the contract.  The Sharks probably want to sign Stuart for 2 years, and he would probably be asking for 3 or 4 years.  We shall see where the two sides net out.

Next up:  Zach Parise

Filed under 2012-13, Defensemen, UFA Tagged with , ,

Congratulations to the Los Angeles Kings – not what we would have predicted

June 13, 2012 by Leave a Comment

This first year of applying Puckonomics to playoff predictions has been a big learning for us. It is clear that at a macro level, using team performance for the entire season is not a good leading indicator of how a team will do (note: keep in mind our analysis ignores actual team standings, just aggregate performance of team players).

Over the next coming weeks I will dive deeper into the regular season statistics of individual players on both the Los Angeles Kinds and New Jersey Devils to see if there was some leading indicators that would have predicted these two teams would have met in the finals. I am sure there will be some nuggets that would have some clues that both of them would have a good run. Stay tuned.

Filed under Playoffs Tagged with

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