2011-12 Top 3 Underpaid Forwards

Here are the results of our True Value analysis of the Top 3 underpaid forwards during the 2011-12 campaign.  All three were making $1.25M or less and were worth at least $3M more than their cap hit. Pretty impressive numbers for all three of them.


Team Goals Assists Points Cap Hit ($M) True Value ($M) Amt Underpaid   ($M)
1. Jordan Eberle EDM 34 42 76 1.16 5.13 3.97
2. Jamie Benn DAL 26 37 63 0.82 4.34 3.52
3. PA Parenteau NYI 18 49 67 1.25 4.69 3.44

Eberle still has one more year left on his entry-level contract and Benn is an RFA this summer. The big winner from such a productive year is PA Parenteau who is a UFA on July 1st and should expect a big pay raise.

2011-12 Top 3 Underpaid Defensemen

Here is the list of most underpaid defensemen fromt he 2011-12 season.  There is no surprise that Erik Karlsson is at the top of the list given his Norris Trophy nomination.  What is consistant among all three of them is that they are still on their entry-level contracts and are playing at a very high level with less than three years of NHL experience.

Team Goals Assists Points TOI Cap Hit ($M) True Value ($M) Amt Underpaid   ($M)
1. Erik Karlsson OTT 19 59 78 25.32 1.30 6.24 4.94
2. P.K. Subban MTL 7 29 36 24.30 0.88 4.04 3.16
3. Ryan McDonagh NYR 7 25 32 24.73 0.85 3.90 3.05

Both Karlson and Subban and RFAs this summer, so both should expect big increases in their pay and will certainly not be on this list next year. Unfrotunately,  McDonagh still has one more year on his entry level contract, so his pay day won’t come until next year. The Montreal Canadiens don’t need another reminder that they gave up McDonagh in the Gomez deal, but this is yet another piece of data reinforcing how one-sided that trade was.

2011-12 Top 3 Underpaid Goalies

There aren’t that many surprises in the most underspaid goalies of 2011-12 based on how things went in the playoffs. What is a slight surprise is that Ondrej Pavelec is at the top of the list.   This mostly has to do with him having such a low cap hit of $1.1M.

Here are the numbers:

Team Wins OTL Cap Hit ($M) True Value ($M) Amt Underpaid   ($M)
1. Ondrej Pavelec WPG 29 9 1.15 3.81 2.66
2. Jonathan Quick LAK 35 13 1.8 4.33 2.53
3. Mike Smith PHX 38 10 2 4.31 2.31

Ondrej Pavelec is an RFA this summer, while Quick and Smith are in entering the final year of their deals before becoming UFAs. Both Quick and Smith should expect huge increases next summer.

As always, it is important to point out that the Puckonomics methodology sees the True Value of goalies as being significatnly lower than the actual salaries of the top goalies in the league. Essentially this means there is significant inefficiency in the goalie salary market which results in high-end goalies being disproportionally over-compensated for the value they contribute.

Note: Players with significant injuries are not included in this analysis. A separate analysis of the Rick Dipietro will shed light on the challenge of his situation.