NHL Draft Picks Who Played in the NHL by Round

Everyone pays attention to first round draft picks and likes to point out the busts that are sure to be found in the top 30 (or 31) picks every year (e.g. Griffin Reinhart or Jarred Tinordi). In addition, they also like to point out the later-round break-through players (e.g. Jamie Benn or Patric Hornqvist). However, most people don’t realize that after the first round,  the drop off in the likelihood of playing at least one game in the NHL is pretty significant.  Once you get to the 5^th round there really isn’t a big difference in the probability that a prospect will make the NHL and thus there is only a minor difference in the value of those picks (to be discussed in more detail in a later post). Players drafted in the first two rounds make up half of all the players to play a single game.

While playing a single game in the NHL is a good first cut at achieving ‘success’ in the NHL (and fulfilling childhood dreams), that probably isn’t the best metric to determine how good a team is at drafting.  Just playing a single game sets the bar a little low.  In the next post we will discuss a better second view of drafting success.