2011-12 Most Valuable Goalies

June 17, 2012 by Leave a Comment

Before we detail the winners, it is very important to be clear about what the Puckonomics analysis calculates and what it does not. For goalies, we determine who provided the most value over the 82 regular season games. What the analysis does do not assess is who is the best goalie during the season. To be more specific, Brian Elliott and Jaroslav Halak might be two  of the best goalies in 2011-12 but because they shared the St Louis Blues net, neither played enough games to be one to have be one of the highest True Value goalies.

So here are the results:

Team GP Wins OTL True Value ($M) Cap Hit ($M) Difference ($M)
1. Pekka Rinne NSH 73 43 8 4.66 3.40 1.26
2. Marc-Andre Fleury PIT 67 42 4 4.36 5.00 -0.64
3. Jonathan Quick LAK 69 35 13 4.33 1.80 2.53

A couple of notes.

First, the obvious question is why isn’t Henrik Lundqvist on this list?  Well, he is one of the highest True Value goalies in the league, but not in the Top 3. Compare to Pekka Rinne he only play in 62 games and that 11 game differential means a lot. In particular it means the New York Rangers back-up, Martin Biron is worth a lot more than a regular back-up, which decreases the True Value of Lundqvist. This does not mean he wasn’t the best goalie in the league during 2011-12. He in fact may win the Vezina trophy and it will be well-deserved. The Rangers got phenomenal goaltending from Lundqvist when he played. By there were at least 20 games when they used another goalie, so that goalie created value for the Rangers too.

On a separate note, as detailed in previous posts, it is important to point out that the Puckonomics methodology sees the True Value of goalies as being significatnly lower than the actual salaries of the top goalies in the league. Essentially this means there is significant inefficiency in the goalie salary market which results in high-end goalies being disproportionally over-compensated for the value they contribute.

 

Filed under 2011-12, Goalies Tagged with , , , ,

2011-12 Top 3 Underpaid Defensemen

June 16, 2012 by Leave a Comment

Here is the list of most underpaid defensemen fromt he 2011-12 season.  There is no surprise that Erik Karlsson is at the top of the list given his Norris Trophy nomination.  What is consistant among all three of them is that they are still on their entry-level contracts and are playing at a very high level with less than three years of NHL experience.

Team Goals Assists Points TOI Cap Hit ($M) True Value ($M) Amt Underpaid   ($M)
1. Erik Karlsson OTT 19 59 78 25.32 1.30 6.24 4.94
2. P.K. Subban MTL 7 29 36 24.30 0.88 4.04 3.16
3. Ryan McDonagh NYR 7 25 32 24.73 0.85 3.90 3.05

Both Karlson and Subban and RFAs this summer, so both should expect big increases in their pay and will certainly not be on this list next year. Unfrotunately,  McDonagh still has one more year on his entry level contract, so his pay day won’t come until next year. The Montreal Canadiens don’t need another reminder that they gave up McDonagh in the Gomez deal, but this is yet another piece of data reinforcing how one-sided that trade was.

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Scott Gomez – No surprises, but what should he have been paid?

June 16, 2012 by Leave a Comment

It is no secret that Scott Gomez’s contract that was signed with the New York Rangers and is now being carried by the Montreal Canadiens is out of whack for his value. Since day one of the signing just about everyone mentions that he is not worth the $7M+ average annual salary of his contract.  Obviously he is an easy target to criticize as a result, but at what salary would the comments go away?

Scott Gomez
GP G A Pts Cap Hit ($M) True Value ($M)
2008 81 16 54 70 7.36 3.77
2009 77 16 42 58 7.36 3.57
2010 78 12 47 59 7.36 3.79
2011 80 7 31 38 7.36 2.82
2012 38 2 9 11 7.36 0.94

2011-12 was a tough year for Gomez given injuries and a lack of productive numbers, but there had been some consitency to his game in previous years. If Scott Gomez’s contract was in the $3M-$4M range it is likely he would not be such a lightning rod. Unfortunately his outsized contract may lead to him playing in Hamilton in 2012-13 (or less likely, having his contract being bought out).

Filed under 2011-12, Forwards Tagged with ,

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